Recent Articles

Beware of Junk Bonds Today

June 13, 2018 | Author: Edward Kerschner, CFA and Gene Tannuzzo, CFA | Categories: Chart of the Week, Fixed Income

Beware of Junk Bonds Today
Junk bonds typically suffer the biggest losses in an economic downturn. The best case would be that the gains are behind us and spreads remain at this level without any further relative out-performance. However, that seems unlikely considering the market hasn't been able to sustain these tight levels for long historically....
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Higher Profitability, Higher Valuations

May 29, 2018 | Author: Edward Kerschner, CFA | Categories: Chart of the Week, Fixed Income

Higher Profitability, Higher Valuations
EM valuations, as measured by the price-to-book value ratio (PB) track profitability, as measured by return-on-equity (ROE). ROE had declined steadily to a low of 9.0% in 2015, well below its 2006-14 average of 13.9%. As ROE improves valuations should rise....
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Earnings for Emerging Market Consumers Expected to Outpace EM

May 14, 2018 | Author: Edward Kerschner, CFA | Categories: Chart of the Week, Emerging Markets

Bloomberg consensus estimates are that the DJECON Index will see earnings growth of 40% and 21% in 2018 and 2019, respectively. This compares to the earnings growth of the 22% and 11% in 2018 and 2019, respectively, for the MSCI EM Index....
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Inflation: The Normal Normal

May 07, 2018 | Author: Edward Kerschner, CFA | Categories: Chart of the Week, Fixed Income

Inflation: The Normal Normal
Since 1750, the average annual change in wholesale prices is 1.7%. For most of U.S. economic history, deflation was as common as inflation and consequently the price level was no higher in 1940 than it had been in 1795. With inflation now seemingly returning to “normally” low levels, investors who rely upon benchmark or benchmark-like fixed income strategies may find themselves, at best, in an extended period of modest income....
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Earnings Estimates for Emerging Market Consumer Stocks on the Rise

April 30, 2018 | Author: Edward Kerschner, CFA | Categories: Chart of the Week, Emerging Markets

Earnings Estimates for Emerging Market Consumer Stocks on the Rise
Consensus earnings growth estimates for both 2018 and 2019 for emerging market consumer stocks have also grown over the last year....
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