Emerging Markets

All Duration is Not Created Equal

November 21, 2017 | Author: Edward Kerschner, CFA | Categories: Chart of the Week, Emerging Markets

All Duration is Not Created Equal
After close to four decades of declining interest rates and central bank policy rates hitting zero, the combination of quantitative easing policies, low inflation and tepid growth had driven sovereign bond rates to historic lows. Facing a New Rate Regime, today investors are concerned that duration (i.e., interest rate sensitivity) which has been a source of return may no longer be so, and could potentially be a source of risk should interest rates rise. Those investors are now looking to lower their duration....
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Will ANTS Spoil the Picnic?

November 13, 2017 | Author: Edward Kerschner, CFA | Categories: Chart of the Week, Emerging Markets

Will ANTS Spoil the Picnic?
Like the U.S. market where the so-called FANG stocks (Facebook. Amazon, Netflix and Google) have gotten a lot of attention, emerging market's 'ANTS' (Alibaba, Naspers, Tencent and Samsung) have contributed 43% of the MSCI EM Index YTD gain (as of 11/1/2017). The surge in price of the ANTS stocks has been supported by strong earnings gains; up 77% in 2016 (versus 17% for the EM Index). But that growth differential has been narrowing....
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India calling...

October 30, 2017 | Author: Edward Kerschner, CFA | Categories: Chart of the Week, Emerging Markets

India calling...
India and China are the only two countries in the world with over a billion people using mobile phones. Mobile phone penetration has been supporting consumption growth as M-commerce and M-banking leapfrog the brick and mortar era. This adoption has been driven in part by government reform, specifically by the Aadhaar Act that was enacted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government....
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EM Consumer Earnings Rebound Suggests Meaningful Value

October 17, 2017 | Author: Edward Kerschner, CFA | Categories: Chart of the Week, Emerging Markets

EM Consumer Earnings Rebound Suggests Meaningful Value
Consensus earnings forecasts from Bloomberg for the Dow Jones Emerging Markets Consumer Titans 30 Index (DJECON Index) 2017 earnings is for a +49% gain. This growth is led by forecasted gains in Food Producers (+170%), Media (+150%), Travel & Leisure (+78%), Tobacco (+61%) and General Retailers (+33%) sectors. A further 26% gain is expected in 2018, followed by a third year of double-digit 13% growth in 2019....
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EM Equities Solid Performance Continues

October 13, 2017 | Author: Edward Kerschner, CFA | Categories: Chart of the Week, Emerging Markets

EM Equities Solid Performance Continues
In 2017, emerging markets (EM) earnings are expected to grow at their highest rates since 2010, and the relative valuations remain attractive. This strength has driven the return of +28.1% in the MSCI EM Index thus far this year, outperforming the MSCI World Index (DM) which registered +16.5% year-to-date....
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